The numbers of new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations are nosediving in Los Angeles County, welcome news following a catastrophic winter wave that pummeled the region.
Officials stress, however, that the county is far from out of the woods. Though those figures have tumbled in recent weeks, they remain well above their pre-surge levels — and are still too high for the county to unlock additional sectors of its battered economy or to provide the long-term relief hospitals desperately need.
And the final, most devastating consequence of the pandemic — the number of people losing their battle with the disease — remains high.
About 201 Angelenos, on average, have died from COVID-19 each day over the last week.
Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services, did say Wednesday that it appeared daily COVID-19 deaths had finally peaked.
The highest rate was recorded for the seven-day period that ended on Jan. 14, when the county averaged 241 daily fatalities.
“Although it’s still uncomfortably high, we expect that the average daily mortality will continue to fall in the coming weeks,” Ghaly said during a briefing.
Though the figure is trending in a promising direction, she said the ongoing high numbers of deaths were “heartbreaking — for the families across the county that have lost someone they love, for children that have lost their parents, for parents that have lost children, for people that have lost friends, coworkers, loved ones — that heartbreak is incredibly intense. And that loss is still happening on a daily basis.” Deaths are the ultimate lagging indicator of the coronavirus’ reach, taking longer to rise when a new wave hits, and being slower to fall even when the rate of infection sputters.
The pandemic’s pattern plays out because it can take weeks from when they are infected for people to fall ill enough to require hospital treatment, and weeks more for their condition to deteriorate to the point that they need intensive care or die from the disease.
Officials and experts have regularly emphasized that the only way to avoid this devastating domino effect is to curb coronavirus transmission.
L.A. County has seen tremendous, if qualified, improvement in that regard. The county is now averaging about 5,600 new coronavirus cases a day — down significantly from the about 15,100 seen over the seven-day period that ended Jan. 13 but still far greater than in early October, when the county reported fewer than 1,000 cases a day. As of Tuesday, there were fewer than 5,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in L.A. County — the lowest such number since mid-December, and down from the peak of 8,098 on Jan. 5. But the number is still far higher than it was in early October, when there were fewer than 700 COVID-19 patients countywide.
“While the numbers are down — and we’re very glad the numbers are down — many hospitals are still having staffing challenges,” Ghaly said. “Many hospitals still have an ICU COVID census that is 100% or more of their normal staffed ICU capacity. And this continues to put a lot of strain on the overall hospital and healthcare system.”
The illness severity of patients in the hospital also remains high, with a disproportionate demand for clinically intensive services such as ICU care and the need to be hooked up to a mechanical ventilator or high-flow oxygen.
“Even though new hospitalizations are decreasing, many of the individuals who were admitted weeks ago have experienced progression of their disease and are now at this point — requiring ICU care and mechanical ventilation even if they didn’t at the earlier stages of their illness,” Ghaly said.
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